Resume

• 2016

  Earth Day Lightning Talks (Event hosted in 2015

  and 2017)

  Organized a science outreach event where graduate students

  staff

  and faculty from George Mason University present their research in 3 minutes.

  Predictability of the Timing of the Growing Season over Texas

  Improving Water and Food Security in South America Through the Prediction of the Timing of the Rainy Season

  Rodrigo J.

  Bombardi

  University of Sao Paulo

  Texas A&M University

  UCSB Department of Geography

  University of Sao Paulo

  George Mason University

  •\tAdvised and graded student assignments.\n•\tLectured for two weeks and lead weekly discussion sections.

  UCSB Department of Geography

  Graduate Student Researcher

  •\tPerformed Regional Climate Simulations: RAMS model.\n•\tApplied spatial statistical analyses: SVD

  EOF

  kriging

  and spherical kernel.\n•\tWrote proposals and papers for funding agencies

  conferences

  and journals.\n•\tPresented at conferences

  symposiums

  and seminars.

  UCSB Department of Geography

  Instructor of Record

  •\tLectured for six weeks

  prepared assignments and evaluations.

  UCSB Department of Geography

  Texas A&M University

  Bryan/College Station

  Texas Area

  Wrote research proposals\nWrote scientific articles\nLed research projects\nAnalyzed large datasets\nManaged research funds\nManaged teaching assistants\nAdvised undergraduate and graduate research\nTaught undergraduate and graduate courses\nPresented at conferences\nPerformed administrative work: member of the awards committee

  Assistant Professor

  •\tAdvised students\n•\tPrepared lecture material

  University of Sao Paulo

  University of Sao Paulo

  Sao Paulo

  BRazil

  •\tAdvised students\n•\tPrepared lecture material

  Teacher Assitant

  Fairfax

  VA

  Wrote scientific articles\nPerformed simulations with a global coupled climate model\nMade improvements to a global coupled climate model (currently in use operationally in India)\nAnalyzed large datasets\nLed research projects and research teams\nPresented at conferences\nOrganized outreach events: Lightning Talks (3 min research talks)

  Postdoctoral Research Fellow

  George Mason University

  Member of the awards committee

  American Association of Geographers

  Member of the Board on Women and Minorities; member of the Committee on Climate Services

  American Meteorological Association

• 2009

  Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)

  Geography (Climatology)

  University of California

  Santa Barbara

• 2006

  Portuguese

  English

  Master's degree

  Meteorology

  University of Sao Paulo

• 2001

  Bachelor's degree

  Meteorology

  University of Sao Paulo

• Big Brother and Big Sister of Massachusetts Bay

  Data Analysis

  Science

  Climate Change

  Algorithms

  Statistics

  Environmental Awareness

  Microsoft Word

  Shell Scripting

  Quantitative Research

  Microsoft Excel

  Data Mining

  Grant Writing

  Research

  Simulations

  PowerPoint

  Numerical Analysis

  Project Management

  Proposal Writing

  Technical Writing

  Microsoft Office

  Precipitation over eastern South America and the South Atlantic Sea surface temperature during neutral ENSO periods

  Michelle S. Reboita

  The dominant mode of coupled variability over the South Atlantic Ocean is known as “South Atlantic Dipole” (SAD) and is characterized by a dipole in sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies with centers over the tropical and the extratropical South Atlantic. Previous studies have shown that variations in SST related to SAD modulate large-scale patterns of precipitation over the Atlantic Ocean. Here we show that variations in the South Atlantic SST are associated with changes in daily precipitation over eastern South America. Rain gauge precipitation

  satellite derived sea surface temperature and reanalysis data are used to investigate the variability of the subtropical and tropical South Atlantic and impacts on precipitation. SAD phases are assessed by performing Singular value decomposition analysis of sea level pressure and SST anomalies. We show that during neutral El Niño Southern Oscillation events

  SAD plays an important role in modulating cyclogenesis and the characteristics of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone. Positive SST anomalies over the extratropical South Atlantic (SAD negative phase) are related to increased cyclogenesis near southeast Brazil as well as the migration of extratropical cyclones further north. As a consequence

  these systems organize convection and increase precipitation over eastern South America.

  Precipitation over eastern South America and the South Atlantic Sea surface temperature during neutral ENSO periods

  James Kinter III

  Paul Dirmeyer

  Edwin Schneider

  Subhadeep Halder

  Chul-Su Shin

  Julia Manganello

  Ahmed Tawfik

  An updated version of the Heated Condensation Framework (HCF) is implemented as a convective triggering criterion into the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2). The new trigger replaces the original criteria in both the deep (Simplified Arakawa-Schubert – SAS) and shallow (SAS based) convective schemes. The performance of the original and new triggering criteria is first compared against radiosonde observations. Then

  a series of hindcasts are performed to evaluate the influence of the triggering criterion in the CFSv2 representation of summer precipitation

  the diurnal cycle of precipitation

  and hurricanes that made landfall. The observational analysis shows that the HCF trigger better captures the frequency of convection

  where the original SAS trigger initiates convection too often. When implemented in CFSv2

  the HCF trigger improves the seasonal forecast of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall

  including the representation of the onset dates of the rainy season over India. On the other hand

  the HCF trigger increases error in the seasonal forecast of precipitation over the eastern United States. The HCF trigger also improves the representation of the intensity of hurricanes. Moreover

  the simulation of hurricanes provides insights on the mechanism whereby the HCF trigger impacts the representation of convection.

  The heated condensation framework as a convective trigger in the NCEP climate forecast system version 2

  Arun KumarZeng-Zhen Hu

  James L. Kinter III

  Ioana Colfescu

  V. Krishnamurthy

  Lakshmi Krishnamurthy

  Jian Lu

  Hua Chen

  Bohua Huang

  Larry Marx

  Jieshun Zhu

  Retrospective decadal forecasts were undertaken using the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) as part of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5. Decadal forecasts were performed separately by the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and by the Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies (COLA)

  with the centers using two different analyses for the ocean initial conditions the NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) and the NEMOVAR-COMBINE analysis. COLA also examined the sensitivity to the inclusion of forcing by specified volcanic aerosols. Biases in the CFSv2 for both sets of initial conditions include cold midlatitude sea surface temperatures

  and rapid melting of sea ice associated with warm polar oceans. Forecasts from the NEMOVAR-COMBINE analysis showed strong weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)

  eventually approaching the weaker AMOC associated with CFSR. The decadal forecasts showed high predictive skill over the Indian

  the western Pacific

  and the Atlantic Oceans and low skill over the central and eastern Pacific. The volcanic forcing shows only small regional differences in predictability of surface temperature at 2m (T2m) in comparison to forecasts without volcanic forcing

  especially over the Indian Ocean. An ocean heat content (OHC) budget analysis showed that the OHC has substantial memory

  indicating potential for the decadal predictability of T2m; however

  the model has a systematic drift in global mean OHC. The results suggest that the reduction of model biases may be the most productive path towards improving the model’s decadal forecasts.

  Evaluation of the CFSv2 CMIP5 Decadal Predictions.

  This study investigates the temporal variability of the South America monsoon system (SAMS) over Brazil with focus on the Brazilian savanna. The onset

  end

  and total rainfall during the summer monsoon are investigated using precipitation pentad estimates from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (1979-2004). Likewise

  the variability of SAMS characteristics are investigated using the intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) coupled global climate model for Interdisciplinary Research (MIROC) in the 20th century (1981-2000) and in a scenario with the double present concentration of CO2 (2xCO2) (2061-2080).. It is shown that the spatial variability of the onsets over central Brazil simulated by MIROC for the 20th century run corresponds very well to the observations. Moreover

  there is indication of change in the tails of the seasonal precipitation distributions over the savanna for the scenario with 2xCO2

  comparatively to the present climate. This suggests changes in the probability of extremes (dry or wet) events over that region in a scenario with 2xCO2

  which indicates according to MIROC the large exposure of the region to possible consequences of climate changes resulting from increasing greenhouse gases.

  Variability of the monsoon regime over the Brazilian Savanna: the present climate and projections for a 2xCO2 scenario using the MIROC model

  This study investigates relationships between Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) and the variability of the characteristics of the South American Monsoon System (SAMS)

  such as the onset dates and total precipitation over central eastern Brazil. The observed onset and\ntotal summer monsoon precipitation are estimated for the period 1979–2007. SST patterns are obtained from the Empirical Orthogonal Function. It is shown that variations in SST on interannual timescales over the South Atlantic Ocean play an important role in the total summer monsoon\nprecipitation. Negative (positive) SST anomalies over the topical South Atlantic along with positive (negative) SST anomalies over the extratropical South Atlantic are associated with early (late) onsets and wet (dry) summers over southeastern Brazil and late (early) onset and dry (wet)\nsummers over northeastern Brazil. Simulations from Phase 3 of the World Climate Research Programme Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP-3) are assessed for the 20th century climate scenario (1971–2000). Most CMIP3 coupled models reproduce the main modes of\nvariability of the South Atlantic Ocean. GFDL2.0 and MIROC-M are the models that best represent the SST variability over the South Atlantic. On the other hand

  these models do not succeed in representing the relationship between SST and SAMS variability.

  The South Atlantic Dipole and Variations in the Characteristics of the South American Monsoon in the WCRP-CMIP3 Multi-Model.

  James L. Kinter III

  Timothy DelSole

  Benjamin Cash

  Katty Pegion

  Laurie Trenary

  The seasonal predictability of austral summer rainfall is evaluated in a set of retrospective forecasts (hindcasts) performed as part of the Minerva and Metis projects. Both projects use the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Integrated Forecast System (IFS) coupled to the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO). The Minerva runs consist of three sets of hindcasts where the spatial resolution of the model’s atmospheric component is progressively increased while keeping the spatial resolution of its oceanic component constant. In the Metis runs

  the spatial resolution of both the atmospheric and oceanic components are progressively increased. We find that raw model predictions show seasonal forecast skill for rainfall over northern and southeastern South America. However

  predictability is difficult to detect on a local basis

  but it can be detected on a large-scale pattern basis. In addition

  increasing horizontal resolution does not lead to improvements in the forecast skill of rainfall over South America. A predictable component analysis shows that only the first predictable component of austral summer precipitation has forecast skill

  and the source of forecast skill is El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Seasonal prediction of precipitation remains a challenge for state-of-the-art climate models. Positive benefits of increasing model resolution might be more evident in other atmospheric fields (i.e.

  temperature or geopotential height) and/or temporal scales (i.e.

  subseasonal temporal scales).

  Seasonal predictability of summer rainfall over South America.

  This study examines the variability of the South America monsoon system (SAMS) over tropical South America (SA). The onset

  end

  and total rainfall during the summer monsoon are investigated using precipitation pentad estimates from the global precipitation climatology\nproject (GPCP) 1979–2006. Likewise

  the variability of SAMS characteristics is examined in ten Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) global coupled climate models in the twentieth century (1981–2000) and in a future scenario of global change (A1B) (2081–2100). It is shown that most IPCC models misrepresent the intertropical convergence zone and therefore do not capture the actual annual cycle of precipitation over the Amazon and northwest SA. Most models can correctly represent the spatiotemporal variability of the annual cycle of precipitation in central and eastern Brazil such as the correct phase of dry and wet seasons

  onset dates

  duration of rainy\nseason and total accumulated precipitation during the summer monsoon for the twentieth century runs. Nevertheless

  poor representation of the total monsoonal precipitation over the Amazon and northeast Brazil is observed in a large majority of the models. Overall

  MIROC3.2-hires

  MIROC3.2-medres and MRI-CGCM3.2.3 show the most realistic representation of SAMS’s characteristics\nsuch as onset

  duration

  total monsoonal precipitation

  and its interannual variability. On the other\nhand

  ECHAM5

  GFDL-CM2.0 and GFDL-CM2.1 have the least realistic representation of the same characteristics. For the A1B scenario the most coherent feature observed in the IPCC models is a reduction in precipitation over central-eastern Brazil during the summer monsoon

  comparatively with the present climate. The IPCC models do not indicate statistically significant changes in SAMS onset and demise dates for the same scenario.

  IPCC Global Coupled Model Simulations of the South America Monsoon System

  James L. Kinter III

  Paul A. Dirmeyer

  James L Kinter III

  Paul A. Dirmeyer

  Ahmed B. Tawfik

  Convection Initiation in Climate Models Using the Heated Condensation Framework: A Review. DOI: 10.1007/978-981-13-3396-5_3. In book: Current Trends in the Representation of Physical Processes

  Jennifer M Adams

  Benjamin A Cash

  James L Kinter

  Kathy V. Pegion

  Sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) retrospective forecasts from three global coupled\nmodels are used to evaluate the predictability of the onset and demise dates of the\nrainy season over monsoonal regions. The onset and demise dates of the rainy season\nare defined using only precipitation data. The forecasts of the onset and demise dates\nof the rainy season are based on a hybrid methodology that combines observations and\nsimulations. Although skillful model precipitation predictions remain challenging in many\nregions

  our results show that they are skillful enough to identify onset and demise dates\nof the rainy season in many monsoon regions at sub-seasonal (∼30 days) lead-times\nin retrospective forecasts. We verify sub-seasonal prediction skill for the onset and\ndemise dates of the rainy season over South America

  East Asia

  and Northern Australia.\nHowever

  we find low prediction skill for the onset and demise of the rainy season on\nsub-seasonal scales over the Indian monsoon region. This information would be valuable\nto sectors related to water management.

  Sub-seasonal Predictability of the Onset and Demise of the Rainy Season over Monsoonal Regions

  James L Kinter III

  Paul A Dirmeyer

  Ahmed B Tawfik

  Bohar Singh

  Subhadeep Halder

  Edwin K Schneider

  A new triggering mechanism for deep convection based on the heated condensation framework (HCF) is implemented into the National Centers for Environmental Prediction climate forecast system version 2 (CFSv2). The new trigger is added as an additional criterion in the simplified Arakawa–Schubert scheme for deep convection. Seasonal forecasts are performed to evaluate the influence of the new triggering mechanism in the representation of the Indian summer monsoon in the CFSv2. The HCF trigger improves the seasonal representation of precipitation over the Indian subcontinent. The new triggering mechanism leads to a significant

  albeit relatively small

  improvement in the bias of seasonal precipitation totals. In addition

  the new trigger improves the representation of the seasonal precipitation cycle including the monsoon onset

  and the probability distribution of precipitation intensities. The mechanism whereby the HCF improves convection over India seems to be related not only to a better representation of the background state of atmospheric convection but also to an increase in the frequency in which SAS is triggered. As a result

  there was an increase in convective precipitation over India favored by the availability of moist convective instability. The increase in precipitation intensity leads to a reduction in the dry bias.

  Improvements in the representation of the Indian Summer Monsoon in the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2

  The South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) is an intrinsic characteristic of the South American Summer Monsoon. In a recent study

  we verified that the main mode of coupled variability over the South Atlantic (South Atlantic Dipole (SAD)) plays a role in modulating the position of extratropical cyclones that affect the SACZ precipitation. In this study

  we perform numerical experiments to further investigate the mechanisms between SAD and the SACZ. Numerical experiments forced with prescribed SST anomalies showed that

  even though the Atlantic SST affects the position of the cyclone associated with the SACZ

  the atmospheric response and precipitation patterns over land are opposed to the observations. On the other hand

  experiments forced with prescribed anomalous driving fields showed that the atmospheric component of SAD plays a significant role for the right position and intensity of precipitation associated with the SACZ. SAD negative anomalies provide the low-level and upper-level atmospheric support for the intensification of the cyclone at surface and for the increase in precipitation over the land portion of the SACZ. Therefore

  the numerical experiments suggest that

  during El Niño Southern Oscillation neutral conditions

  the SACZ precipitation variability associated with SAD is largely dependent on the atmospheric variability rather than the underlying SST.

  Simulating the influence of the South Atlantic dipole on the South Atlantic convergence zone during neutral ENSO

  Curator for @realscientists during the week of Nov 15-21

  2015. Talked about my research and atmospheric sciences in general.